19 May 2022
Stateometer: trade drives momentum
Bansi Madhavani |
Sharp increase in trade drove economic momentum in the first quarter, the ANZ Stateometer shows, despite a slew of challenges.
29 Nov 2022
ANZ Stateometer: Economic stability across the states, QLD momentum up
Economic momentum across Australia’s states and territories held firm in the September quarter, the ANZ Stateometer found, helped in part by the COVID-19 hit in the previous corresponding period.
The result should be viewed in the context of the COVID weakness seen in the third quarter 2021, when Delta variant restrictions across large parts of the country stalled key parts of the economy. Even so, resilience is evident within regions largely unaffected by restrictions.
"Queensland’s momentum accelerated, driven mainly by a jump in the consumer and trade components.”
According to the ANZ Stateometer, economic momentum remained above trend in all states and territories in the three months to September 30, accelerating across all except the Northern Territory.
It is clear Australia’s economy is standing tall despite the cocktail of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Strength
The consumer, labour and trade subcomponents of the ANZ Stateometer index were strong across most regions.
Labour underutilisation continues to fall and job vacancies remain close to record highs. Households have not pulled back on spending and businesses are still struggling to meet demand.
On the other hand, the housing sector is cooling. Rising interest rates are feeding into falls in housing lending and prices which in turn have led to a decline in the housing component. Building approvals have also unwound.
That said, household savings buffers are very strong, delaying any debt-servicing crunch.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s road ahead will be data dependent. ANZ Research expects the RBA to lift the target cash rate to a peak of 3.85 per cent by mid-2023. That translates to a further 100 basis points of hikes by May.
Sharp
The ANZ Stateometer index is based on an annual comparison of indicators, meaning the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory performance in the September quarter of 2022 is compared with the very weak base in 2021 during lockdowns. Both regions showed a sharp rise.
Victoria’s economic performance accelerated further above trend during the period but was also somewhat inflated by lockdowns.
Queensland’s momentum accelerated, driven mainly by a jump in the consumer and trade components. The Sunshine State is reaping the reward of COVID-driven inter-state migration which has resulted in its monthly household spending growth outpacing other regions. In addition, the health of businesses in Queensland is strong. Both the Business Conditions index and capacity utilisation suggest it continues to outperform all other major states.
South Australia’s performance improved a touch in the quarter with jumps in the consumer and trade sectors offsetting decreases in the housing and labour sectors. Western Australia’s performance accelerated further above trend.
In Tasmania, the economic performance was practically unchanged in the three months to end September with three of the state’s five components accelerating. The NT’s economic performance slowed a smidge, the only region where economic activity decelerated in the period.
The ANZ Stateometer is a set of composite indices that measure economic performance across Australia’s states and territories.
For each jurisdiction, the index extracts the common trend across multiple indicators (between 24 and 32, depending on data available in the jurisdiction). The economic indicators are monthly data series and cover the consumer, business, housing, labour and trade sectors.
Developments across this diverse country are rarely uniform and we hope these geographically specific indices help you to see through the haze of state-by-state data and more intuitively piece together the state of the national economy.
Bansi Madhavani, & Adelaide Timbrell are Senior Economists, Madeline Dunk is an Economist and Arindam Chakraborty is a Junior Economist at ANZ
This story is an edited excerpt from the latest ANZ Stateometer Report, published November 28, 2022.
The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.
editor's picks
17 Nov 2022
Survive or thrive? The year ahead for Australia’s small to medium businesses
Jenefer Stewart |
While some quarters of the economy are doing it tough, the outlook for many small business customers is rosier than you might expect.